Since the beginning of this year, various ministries and commissions have stepped up the implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth, and carried out infrastructure investment in a moderately advanced manner based on major national strategic deployments and the "14th Five-Year Plan". The investment in the central budget is 640 billion yuan, which is higher than the 600 billion yuan and 610 billion yuan in the past two years respectively. It is mainly used for infrastructure investment such as water conservancy projects, gas pipeline renovation, energy infrastructure, and Xiongan New Area. At the same time, it is planned to arrange 3.65 trillion yuan of local government special bonds this year, which is the same as last year, mainly for follow-up financing of projects, rural construction, urban renewal and other projects that benefit the people. So is the "steel demand" of infrastructure construction absent or delayed in the first quarter?
From the perspective of infrastructure investment, investment in the transportation sector is still recovering steadily in the first two months. According to statistics from the Ministry of Transport, from January to February 2022, the national transportation fixed asset investment was 338.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. Among them, the national highway and waterway transportation fixed asset investment was 273.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%; the national railway fixed asset investment was 56.3 billion yuan, the same year-on-year.
In terms of monthly investment, the investment in fixed assets of highway and waterway transportation in February was 129.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, of which road construction investment was 120.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.3%; inland river construction investment was 3.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.9%; The investment in coastal construction was 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%. The fixed asset investment in highway and waterway transportation in February was the highest level since 2017, reflecting the accelerated implementation of the "steady growth" policy in the field of highway and waterway transportation. But at the same time, traditional railway investment is also gaining momentum. In February, railway fixed asset investment completed 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%; in a monthly comparison, it was lower than last year and the same period of the previous year, but lower than 2019. During the same period, it shows that the railway investment field is beginning to accumulate strength.
At the same time, since the beginning of this year, the performance of power investment has been mixed, and the investment in power engineering has slowed down slightly, but the investment in photovoltaic power generation has increased by more than 1.5 times against the trend, and investment in power grid engineering has continued to develop. According to statistics from the National Energy Administration, from January to February 2022, the power projects of major power generation companies in the country completed an investment of 47.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, of which hydropower was 12.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%; thermal power was 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease An increase of 31.9%; nuclear power was 6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%; wind power was 12.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%; solar power was 9.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.7%. The investment in power grid projects was 31.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.
Since late March, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have successively issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for New Energy Storage Development Implementation Plan", "14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System" and "Medium and Long-term Plan for Hydrogen Energy Industry Development". (2021-2035)", which means that the energy industry is facing new development and changes, and investment in the energy industry will usher in a new wave of construction starts. Governance + photovoltaic energy storage power generation project started, with a total investment of about 1.2 billion yuan; on March 24, the Fuzhou-Xiamen, Zhumadian-Wuhan 1000 kV UHV AC project started construction, with a total investment of 10.9 billion yuan for the two projects; on the same day, the total investment The 4.2 billion yuan Zheneng Taizhou No. 1 offshore wind farm officially started; on March 26, the first phase development project of the Bozhong 19-6 condensate gas field started in Qingdao, marking the development of the first 100 billion cubic meter gas field in my country's Bohai Bay Officially entering the project implementation stage, the start of these key energy projects will effectively drive the effective growth of energy steel demand.
From the perspective of capital flow, since the beginning of the year, major projects in many places have been started intensively, and the scale of investment has increased significantly. In the first two months, the proportion of special bonds invested in infrastructure-related fields accounted for nearly 64%, an increase of about 64% compared with the whole year of last year. 10 percentage points. According to statistics from the Ministry of Finance, from January to February 2022, 1,206 billion yuan of local government bonds will be issued nationwide, including 234.1 billion yuan of general bonds and 971.9 billion yuan of special bonds; of which, 1,077.6 billion yuan of new bonds will be issued nationwide, of which general bonds 200.1 billion yuan, 877.5 billion yuan of special bonds; 128.4 billion yuan of refinancing bonds issued nationwide, including 34 billion yuan of general bonds and 94.4 billion yuan of special bonds. From the perspective of bond capital investment, from January to February 2022, new bond funds will be used for transportation infrastructure of 226.862 billion yuan, accounting for 21.1% of new bond funds; municipal construction and industrial park infrastructure will be 325.566 billion yuan, accounting for new bond funds. 137.601 billion yuan for affordable housing projects, accounting for 12.8% of new bond funds; 40.478 billion yuan for ecological protection, accounting for 3.8% of new bond funds; 193.433 billion yuan for social undertakings, accounting for 18% of new bond funds ; Agriculture, forestry and water conservancy 114.19 billion yuan, accounting for 10.6% of new bond funds; energy, urban and rural cold chain logistics infrastructure 18.316 billion yuan, accounting for 1.7% of new bond funds; other 21.167 billion yuan, accounting for 1.9% of new bond funds.
Under the background of moderately advanced infrastructure investment, the effect of newly added special bonds in boosting infrastructure investment has gradually emerged. From January to February, the national infrastructure investment increased by 8.1% year-on-year, an increase of 9.7 percentage points compared with the same period in 2021, the number of newly started projects increased by 1.1 times year-on-year, and the total planned investment in newly started projects increased by 62.8%. According to incomplete statistics, 23 provinces have announced the planned investment in transportation construction in 2022, with a total investment of nearly 3 trillion yuan. Especially since mid-March, major projects have been started continuously. On March 18, Ningxia started 1,076 major projects with a total investment of 504.2 billion yuan; on March 23, the first batch of 1,184 major projects in Qinghai Province resumed work, involving In the fields of comprehensive transportation, clean energy, and industrial transformation and upgrading, the estimated total investment is more than 580 billion yuan; on March 28, Tianjin's first batch of major projects started in a centralized manner, with a total investment of 316 billion yuan. The start of major engineering projects in many places will effectively drive the effective growth of steel demand in transportation, energy and related fields.
Due to the continuous efforts of the stabilizing growth policy and the continuous tendency of special debt funds to the infrastructure field, the "steel demand" of infrastructure construction will not be absent in the first quarter, but due to the recent repeated epidemics in many places, the construction and infrastructure fields that should have been in the peak construction season, The construction progress is obviously limited. At the same time, due to the availability of project funds, project construction progress, supporting facilities construction and other factors, some major projects have just started, so the actual downstream steel demand may be delayed.
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