In April 2022, the overall PMI index of the steel circulation industry was 50.6%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of sub-indices, 8 of the 10 sub-indices that constitute the PMI of the steel circulation industry dropped by 2. Among them, 8 indices of sales volume, total order volume, arrival speed, inventory level, financing environment, corporate employees, trend judgment and purchasing willingness decreased. , while the sales price and purchase cost index rose.
The sales volume index was 47.6%, down 5.8 percentage points from the previous month, and fell back to the contraction range again; the order index was 46.7%, down 6.0 percentage points from the previous month, and also fell into the contraction range. Affected by the repeated epidemics in many places and the impact of logistics and transportation, the release of downstream demand is less than expected, and the domestic steel market procurement demand is obviously insufficient.
The inventory index was 47.2%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. From a regional perspective, five of the six major regions fell and one liter. Among them, the Northwest, East China, North China, Central South and Northeast regions, the inventory index decreased by 2.8, 2.5, 1.8, 1.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the Southwest region continued to rebound. The inventory index rose by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of scale, the inventory of sample iron and steel distribution enterprises with annual sales volume of more than 1 million tons has rebounded, while the inventory of sample iron and steel distribution enterprises with annual sales volume of 500,000-1,000,000 tons, 100,000-500,000 tons and below 100,000 tons also continued to decline. , which shows that the circulation of the domestic steel market is obviously limited by the impact of the epidemic, and the process of destocking the steel society is slow.
From the perspective of the leading index, the purchasing willingness index of the steel circulation industry in April 2022 was 50.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and fell within the expansion range; the trend judgment index was 51.3%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month , also showed a downward trend, reflecting that the sample companies maintained a relatively pessimistic attitude towards the later market.
In April 2022, the domestic steel market should have been in the traditional peak season, but the release of downstream demand was insufficient, and due to the strong support of raw material costs, the domestic steel market showed a volatile market of "bottom bottom and top top".
Supply side: In April, as steel mills faced the dual pressure of raw material transportation and finished product transportation, the production capacity release of steel production enterprises was under pressure for a short period of time. According to the survey data of Lange Steel Network, in the first four weeks of April 2022, the blast furnace operating rate of 100 small and medium-sized steel enterprises nationwide was 81.0%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points from March. Judging from the ten-day production data of key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises, under the guidance of policies such as ensuring supply, stabilizing prices and stabilizing industrial production, large and medium-sized iron and steel production enterprises have maintained the stability of production capacity release. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of pig iron in key steel enterprises in early and mid-April 2022 was 1.9596 million tons, an increase of 8.45% over the previous month’s cumulative daily output and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%; the average daily output of crude steel in key steel enterprises was 2.229 million tons ton, an increase of 7.98% from the cumulative daily output of the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.09%; the average daily steel output of key steel enterprises was 2.1196 million tons, an increase of 5.36% from the cumulative daily output of the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 5.89%. According to the estimation of Lange Steel Research Center, the daily output of crude steel in the country may rise to about 3 million tons in April, and the daily crude steel output of key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises will remain at about 2.3 million tons.
Demand side: Since the beginning of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission has examined and approved 32 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of 520 billion yuan. The projects are concentrated in transportation, water conservancy, energy, high-tech and other industries. At the same time, it is also necessary to highlight financial security. Since the beginning of the year, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a central budgetary fund plan of 46.75 billion yuan for railways, civil aviation, highways and other fields, and reviewed and approved two batches of local government special bond projects in the transportation field. At the same time, the pre-issue of special bonds this year will ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditures in various regions, and better play the positive role of special bonds in stimulating effective investment. According to statistics from the Ministry of Finance, about 1.25 trillion yuan of special bonds was issued in the first quarter, accounting for 86% of the quota issued in advance; financial departments at all levels allocated a total of 852.8 billion yuan of bond funds to project units, accounting for 68% of the newly issued special bonds. %. Under the background of moderately advanced infrastructure investment, the effect of newly added special bonds in boosting infrastructure investment has gradually emerged. In the first quarter, the national infrastructure investment increased by 8.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than that in the first two months of this year. Currently facing a complex domestic and international economic environment, infrastructure investment has become an important starting point for stabilizing economic growth. Since mid-to-late March, major and key projects in many places have resumed the "start-up wave", but due to the impact of epidemic control, the progress of the project has not Not optimistic, and the availability of relevant project funds also restricts the release of steel market demand.
In May 2022, the prosperity of the steel industry fell again within the expansion range, indicating that the traditional peak season characteristics of the domestic steel market are not obvious, and the game between strong expectations and weak reality is obvious. The supply side will be affected by the policy of ensuring supply and stable prices and reducing production, showing a release of production capacity within a certain range; the demand side will be jointly affected by the epidemic control situation and the progress of resumption of work and production, and the procurement demand suppressed in the early stage may gradually be gradually Released, the domestic steel market will face a complex situation of "high costs, low profits, strong expectations, and weak reality". The Lange Steel Research Center predicts that the domestic steel market will show a high and volatile situation in May 2022. According to the actual epidemic control situation and demand release, the specific trend of domestic steel prices in May will first decline and then rise.
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