company news about Steel prices are expected to fluctuate downward next week

The release effect of the current favorable policies has weakened, the futures volatility has been adjusted, the spot market price has risen and then fell, the overall market transaction is sluggish, and the temperature in the north has fallen, the progress of downstream outdoor construction projects has weakened, terminal purchases are sluggish, and the end of the month is approaching, capital pressure is gradually emerging. For details, continue to look down.

Spot market

Construction steel: first rise and then fall
Future snails fluctuated and adjusted, spot prices weakened in a narrow range following the futures snails, market resources continued to be tight, some small inventories were eager to clear their warehouses, the overall market transactions were average, market speculation was low, transactions were mainly demanded, and some construction sites were still rushing. The decline in market prices is limited, and the building materials market prices are expected to run weaker next week.

Hot-rolled coils: oscillating down
In the off-season, the trading atmosphere is obviously light, and the merchants are safe and the prices are relatively low. As the traditional winter storage date approaches, the merchants' winter storage willingness is significantly weaker than in previous years. Except for the fixed agreement volume, there is no bulk ordering willingness for the time being. , But due to limited supply, the overall inventory is in a state of decline. It is expected that the hot-rolling market prices may weaken next week and adjust operations.

Plate: the shock weakens
As the weather in the north is getting colder, spot demand is difficult to support, price chasing performance is weak, the seasonal off-season effect of the market is obvious, and the market capital pressure at the end of the year is superimposed. Both sides are weak, and next week is still at the end of the year. It is expected that the mid-board price will fluctuate weakly next week.

Strip steel: weak
As the settlement date approaches the end of the month, merchants often implement the principle of concessionary shipments to withdraw funds. However, due to the off-season factors, most merchants have generally failed. The northern environmental protection control is in progress, the downstream construction is reduced and the Winter Olympics is expected to increase production. Due to the shortage, the merchants are more cautious and wait and see. It is expected that the strip steel price will be stable and weaker next week.

Profiles: steady and weak
Considering that the current profile price is relatively high, there is still a large distance from the manufacturer's winter storage price. With low inventory, low supply, and demand has not yet fully shrunk, this winter reserves are limited, and the end of the month is approaching, capital pressure is gradually showing , Merchants cut their warehouses in exchange for cash, and it is expected that strip steel prices may be adjusted weakly next week.

Pipe: Mainly stabilize the tone
At present, environmental protection policies are tightened, manufacturers’ transportation is restricted, some production lines are overhauled, resources are scarce, actual demand is sluggish, and the upward momentum is insufficient. Slightly lower, the acceptance of winter storage is not high, and the market price of pipes is expected to fluctuate and run weakly next week.

The raw material market

Iron ore: maintaining stability
The general index stands at a high of $125, domestic production of blast furnaces has increased, and molten iron production has rebounded, and demand has improved, and shipments have been good. Under the stimulus of policies to stabilize the economy and reasonable production restrictions, steel mills’ demand for internal powder has increased. Prices have risen frequently, and it is expected that iron ore prices may be stable and adjusted next week.

Coke: Temporarily stable
As some coking companies in Henan, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased by 120 yuan/ton, the scope of the increase was further expanded. The price of coking coal has risen significantly, coke cost support has strengthened, downstream steel mills have increased their purchasing enthusiasm, and some steel mills have been restocking in advance. It is expected that the price of coke will rise steadily next week.

Scrap steel: shock adjustment
As spot market prices fluctuate and steel smelting prices have risen, steel mills have become cautious in purchasing. They are now more wait and see and less purchases. However, the current supply is not much. Some foundries in the north have stopped production. However, the demand in the south is good and overall shipments are acceptable. Part of the negative inventories are maintained, and the merchants are optimistic. It is expected that scrap prices will be stable and adjusted next week.

Pig iron: strong operation
Scrap steel, ore, and coke are operating well. Pig iron costs and demand support are acceptable. In addition to the low inventory of iron plants, merchants still have the intention to increase prices. However, the current steel is weak and fluctuating. Some foundries may have an early holiday due to the impact of the epidemic near the end of the year. There will be the impact of the Winter Olympics, which may restrain the rise of pig iron. It is expected that the pig iron market price may be strong next week and wait and see.

There are several influencing factors

1. In mid-December, the average daily output of steel increased, and the inventory increased year-on-year
According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily steel output of key steel enterprises in mid-December was 1.8305 million tons, an increase of 1.73% month-on-month and a decrease of 14.33% year-on-year. In mid-December, the social inventory of five major types of steel in 20 cities was 7.84 million tons, a decrease of 430,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 5.2%. The inventory continued the previous decline, increasing by 540,000 tons from the beginning of the year, an increase of 7.4%; an increase of 550,000 from the same period last year Tons, an increase of 75%.

2. The operating rate has dropped, and the output has fallen
The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills this week was 67.87%, a decrease of 0.13% from last week, and a decrease of 17.68% from last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 74.33%, an increase of 0.05% from the previous month, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.54%; the profit rate of steel mills was 82.25% , A month-on-month increase of 0.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.66%; the average daily molten iron output was 1,990,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10 thousand tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 455,300 tons.

3. To curb the blind development of the "two highs" project, and continue to implement the dual control of energy consumption
Nine departments including the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice on the implementation of pilot projects for climate investment and financing, mentioning that the pilot places must resolutely curb the blind development of the “two highs” projects into the formulation of local investment and industrial policies, and implement relevant regional and industry carbon emissions. Peak action plan and policy requirements such as dual energy consumption control, clean energy substitution, clean transportation, and total coal consumption control.

Comprehensive view

Boosted by favorable macroeconomic policies, the futures market stopped falling and rebounded, and spot market prices rose slightly. However, the off-season expectations were suppressed, and terminal purchases gradually declined. Considering the sudden drop in temperature near New Year's Day next week, risk aversion is strong, and merchants’ winter storage The willingness is not high, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate downward next week. (Source: China Steel Network)