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Inventory reduction is not as good as in previous years, rebar is easy to fall but hard to rise source
Latest company news about Inventory reduction is not as good as in previous years, rebar is easy to fall but hard to rise source

Inventory reduction is not as good as in previous years, rebar is easy to fall but hard to rise source


Since mid-November, market sentiment has warmed up, and winter reserves are approaching, and rigid demand may increase. Rebar futures rebounded slightly near 4000 yuan/ton.


On the whole, this wave of quotations roughly walked out of a deep L shape with high front and low back. From the perspective of historical prices, the rapid fall in prices in October can be regarded as a rational return of prices after the release of emotions, and the current 4000-4500 yuan/ton is still at a high level compared to historical prices.


This year's policy has always been an important factor affecting finished products and even black products. The dual-carbon target implemented at the beginning of the year continued to give my country's steel industry policy guidance. With the continuous tightening of dual energy consumption control in many places, news of power curtailment and production restriction in steel mills has been frequently reported. Steel production has continued to decline in the past three months, especially rebar production has declined significantly.


Data shows that as of December 2, 247 steel plants had a blast furnace operating rate of 69.79% and a blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 74.80%. Although the operating rate of Tangshan and other regions has rebounded recently, the operating rate of blast furnaces across the country has continued to decline. In terms of output, the production of rebar has continued to shrink. It is expected that the production of rebar will continue to decline in November. In terms of profit, the profit rate of steel mills was 67.53%, an increase of 9.52 percentage points from the previous month. Overlapping some steel mills with plans to resume production in December, there is room for a rebound in the operating rate of blast furnaces across the country. However, at the end of the year, the energy consumption "dual control" policy has become stricter, and industrial enterprises have limited power and production, and the overall output has limited room for growth.


Entering the third quarter, demand for finished products continued to weaken. The October real estate data released some time ago once again confirmed the weak demand. From the core logic point of view, under the guidance of the dual-carbon production limit policy, demand-driven has always been the main logic of rebar, so the decline in demand is very obvious for the suppression of rebar prices.


From the data point of view, the real estate industry sales data continued to fall from January to October, and the rate of decline was very obvious. The sales area and newly started area fell by more than 15% in a single month. The continued decline in sales was mainly affected by the control policies and the high base factor of the previous year. The core reason for the recent decline in demand for finished products is the continued weakening of real estate data, which is affected by the continued withdrawal of funds. The real estate data in the first two quarters of this year has exceeded expectations, and the overall pace has moved forward. The market sentiment cooled rapidly in the second half of the year, leading to a rapid decline in the disk.


Generally speaking, although short-term real estate fund management and control efforts have slowed down, from a cyclical point of view, it still takes time for funds to be reflected to the demand side, short-term real estate data is difficult to improve, and real estate demand remains weak.


In terms of infrastructure construction, from January to October, the national investment in fixed assets was 4,45823 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. In the first half of the year, infrastructure investment continued to be sluggish, and the issuance of local special bonds slowed sharply. In the second half of the year, as the downward pressure on the economy increased, the issuance of local special bonds accelerated, and the role of infrastructure underpinning became prominent.


From the perspective of inventory, although the total inventory remains de-stocked, the de-stocking has slowed down significantly. From the data point of view, the rebar stocks are still at a historical high level in the same period.

The average daily molten iron output has continued to decline recently, and demand has been severely affected. The real estate data released in October confirmed the weakness of this year's gold, nine, and silver. Although the resumption of production in some steel mills in December and the rigid demand for winter storage have led to a rebound in the prices of finished products, from the perspective of inventory-to-production ratios, although the absolute value of current inventories is lower than 2020, social inventories are still high, and rebar is unlikely to appear The previously anticipated shortage and the core logic of demand-driven rebar are prone to falling but not rising.

Pub Time : 2021-12-23 15:41:12 >> News list
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