The "my country's Steel Demand Forecast Results in 2022" issued by the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute on the 15th shows that the comprehensive forecast of my country's steel demand in 2021 and 2022 is carried out by adopting the steel consumption coefficient method and the downstream industry consumption method. Consumption was 954 million tons, down 4.7% year-on-year; my country’s steel demand in 2022 is predicted to be 947 million tons, down 0.7% year-on-year.
Li Xinchuang, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chief Engineer of the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, said that in 2021, my country's economy will be affected by demand shrinking, supply shocks, and policy tightening. The growth momentum of consumption and investment will weaken, and the supply chain will be blocked. Affected by this, the demand for steel in housing construction and other fields has experienced a significant phased decline, which has led to a decline in the overall consumption of steel in my country.
For 2022, Li Xinchuang said that my country will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and the continued economic recovery and development will not change, and appropriate advancement in infrastructure investment will provide effective support for the overall stability of steel demand. The demand for steel in machinery, automobiles, shipbuilding, home appliances, railways, bicycles and motorcycles has maintained a growth trend, but the demand for steel in industries such as construction, energy, containers, hardware, and steel-wood furniture has declined.
In this context, according to the analysis of steel consumption and net exports of steel and steel billets, my country's crude steel output is expected to be 1.040 billion tons and 1.017 billion tons in 2021 and 2022, respectively, down 2.3% and 2.2% year-on-year. Taking into account the increase in scrap steel usage and other factors, my country’s pig iron output is expected to be 863 million tons and 824 million tons in 2021 and 2022, down 2.8% and 4.5% year-on-year. In terms of iron ore, it is estimated that in 2022, it will consume 1.302 billion tons of iron ore (finished ore, converted to grade TFe: 62%), down 4.5% year-on-year; of which, iron ore imports are 1.08 billion tons, down 4.4% year-on-year.
Li Xinchuang said that double control of production capacity and output in the steel industry may become a normalized policy. In the context of slowing demand, steel production has entered the peak plateau area and is expected to fluctuate for a long time on the scale of 1 billion tons. He pointed out that the per capita crude steel consumption in typical developed countries such as the United Kingdom, France, the United States, Germany, Japan, and South Korea all entered a decline stage after reaching their peak. In the medium and long term, with the in-depth advancement of my country's transformation of economic development mode and adjustment of industrial structure, the proportion of the tertiary industry will continue to rise, the proportion of the secondary industry will decline, the role of investment in stimulating economic growth will weaken, and consumption will continue to drive economic growth. , So the intensity of steel consumption will show a downward trend.
Li Xinchuang said that the 14th Five-Year Plan will continue to deepen steel capacity reduction and resolutely implement capacity replacement policies. In addition, continue to optimize the layout of productivity, reduce crude steel production capacity, promote cross-regional and cross-ownership mergers and reorganizations of steel companies, and increase industry concentration. Spend.
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